The Dow Jones rally kicked back into gear on Tuesday, as the stock market bellwether and its peers surged on bullish corporate earnings. However, the world’s largest asset manager warns that the markets could enter a worrisome trend – one that could potentially hamstring President Trump’s reelection campaign.
Dow Leads Massive Stock Market Comeback
Shortly after the opening bell, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had jumped 135 points or 0.51 percent to eclipse the 26,500 mark. At least check, the DJIA traded at 26,519.61. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq lagged the Dow but flashed gains of 0.3 percent and 0.32 percent, respectively.
On Monday, all three indices posted minor declines, but Wall Street is doing its best this morning to pump the markets ahead of a fresh round of earnings.
Writing in a note to clients, UBS strategists chided investors for their doom-and-gloom global growth forecasts. They said that current equities valuations anticipate growth stabilization, while data from key regions such as China suggests that growth will continue to accelerate.
“The rally has been underpinned by dovish central banks and a sharp decline in global real rates, and we have shown that markets are priced for growth stabilization, but not for acceleration,” wrote the UBS team, which was led by Daniel Waldman, adding that this “leaves room for stocks to run higher.”
BlackRock Chief: Stock Market at Risk of Melt-Up
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink agrees that the parabolic stock market rally has plenty of more room to run, but he doesn’t necessarily think that is a good thing.
Speaking during Tuesday’s episode of CNBC show “Squawk Box,” Fink said that the Dow and its peers could suffer a “melt-up” when cash that has remained on the sidelines begins to rush back into equities.
“We have a risk of a melt-up, not a meltdown here. Despite where the markets are in equities, we have not seen money being put to work,” said Fink, whose firm is the world’s largest asset manager. “We have record amounts of money in cash. We still see outflows in retail in equities and in institutions.”
Though they might initially appear bullish, melt-ups often mislead investors about where the stock market is actually headed. These sudden rallies frequently give way to sharp corrections.
That could bode ill for Donald Trump, whose 2020 reelection case hangs heavily on the stock market’s performance during his first term. Indeed, Goldman Sachs – which expects Trump to vanquish the eventual Democratic nominee – said that positive economic performance would be a key catalyst to his narrow electoral victory.
Already, the president has begun to hedge against a bull market reversal. He blames Federal Reserve policies for stifling economic growth, opining that the central bank’s four rate hikes in 2018 sapped as much as 10,000 points from the Dow, which entered Tuesday just below 26,400.
If the Fed had done its job properly, which it has not, the Stock Market would have been up 5000 to 10,000 additional points, and GDP would have been well over 4% instead of 3%…with almost no inflation. Quantitative tightening was a killer, should have done the exact opposite!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 14, 2019
If the Dow does succumb to a melt-up over the next few months, Trump will have to hope that the upward momentum continues at least through November 2020.
France: Trump’s Notre Dame Advice Would Have Led to Cathedral’s Collapse
Meanwhile, Trump continues to audition for roles he can fill during his post-presidency swansong – whether that begins in 2021 or 2025.
On Monday, he doled out some unhelpful advice to embattled aerospace giant Boeing. The $215 billion company’s shares fell around 1 percent despite the president providing them with such insightful tips as “FIX the Boeing 737 MAX” and “add some additional great features.”
Later that day, he chirped in on the Notre Dame tragedy to advise the Parisian firefighters on how best to control the flames and save the historic medieval cathedral.
“So horrible to watch the massive fire at Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris,” Trump said. “Perhaps flying water tankers could be used to put it out. Must act quickly!”
So horrible to watch the massive fire at Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris. Perhaps flying water tankers could be used to put it out. Must act quickly!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 15, 2019
Remarkably, French civil defense officials responded to Trump’s advice, revealing that his plan to use water-bombing aircraft could “lead to the collapse of the entire structure of the cathedral.”
Hundreds of firemen of the Paris Fire Brigade are doing everything they can to bring the terrible #NotreDame fire under control. All means are being used, except for water-bombing aircrafts which, if used, could lead to the collapse of the entire structure of the cathedral.
— Sécurité Civile Fr (@SecCivileFrance) April 15, 2019