Ethereum (ETH): Final Shakeout Or Another Bear Trend?

Ethereum (ETH) seems to have just broken its symmetrical triangle to the downside. This was expected as the price entered the triangle from the upside. Symmetrical triangle being a continuation pattern had a higher chance of breaking to the downside. The ETH/USD daily chart shows that it happened. Ethereum (ETH) began the day in red and soon broke below the triangle. Under normal conditions, this would be a strong sign of further downside to come. However, this did not happen under normal conditions. The volume for ETH/USD is already too low and the price can be easily manipulated either way. Moreover, this happened on a weekend. Trading activity on weekend is generally considered inconsequential especially when the volume is this low.

That being said, whatever happens after this breakout will be closely watched. If Ethereum (ETH) begins the next week in green, it will seriously hurt the bearish sentiment. On the other hand, if Ethereum (ETH) begins the next week in red, it will strengthen the bearish sentiment. However, the bullish sentiment will not be as affected. Most Ethereum (ETH) bulls already expected a breakout to the downside or a final shakeout. At this point, most weak hands are already out of the game. However, the whales can attempt a final shakeout and most Ethereum (ETH) buyers are aware of this. Of course, there are Ethereum (ETH) bears who think the price will fall further. Some of them are professional who just trade the waves up and down. However, others are former weak hands or dreamers who want to wait to buy Ethereum (ETH) under $100.

Ethereum Chart With Values

The daily chart above for ETH/USD shows another possibility. If we take the wick of the last red candle corresponding to the green bar on the VIX diagram in account, a different scenario comes to light. It shows that the symmetrical triangle is not broken yet and Ethereum (ETH) might break it to the upside next week. The green bar on the VIX diagram for the daily chart is a strong indicator that we have already found a bottom. There is a high probability that the price will break above this symmetrical triangle next week. However, if it breaks below it, then the price will have to test the trend line again. The only way Ethereum (ETH) can fall to $100 is by breaking market structure.

Ethereum Chart With Values

There is nothing wrong with saying Ethereum (ETH) could fall to $100 or lower. Anything is possible in this market. However, there is a way markets work. The price cannot just fall to $100 and then fly towards $1,000. For the price to fall to $100, it would have to break critical structures. Once that happens, the bullish case is dead as Ethereum (ETH) will enter another bear trend.

So, this is why it does not make any sense to be bullish on Ethereum (ETH) and still wait for $100. Even if you are bearish on Ethereum (ETH), you should wait till it breaks market structure. On the weekly chart for ETH/USD, we have now seen eight consecutive green bars on the VIX diagram. Every one of these bars says, “This could be the bottom”. When eight consecutive bars convey the same message, it should be taken seriously.

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